Monday, January 27, 2014

Bias shown in 14 out of 15 Met Office predictions

Again the Met Office predicted higher temperatures for 2013 that actually proved to be the case.  This is the 14th out of the 15 last years where the Met Office over predicted the temperature.

The Met Office forecast  for 2013 was published on 21st December 2012. It's best estimate was for 0.57 C above the 1961-1990 average.

Here are the figures for the last 15 years:

Year Forecast Actual
1999 ...0.38 ...0.26
2000 ...0.41 ...0.24
2001 ...0.47 ...0.40
2002 ...0.47 ...0.46
2003 ...0.55 ...0.46
2004 ...0.50 ...0.43
2005 ...0.51 ...0.47
2006 ...0.45 ...0.43
2007 ...0.54 ...0.40
2008 ...0.37 ...0.31
2009 ...>0.40 . .0.44
2010 ...0.58 ...0.50
2011 ...0.44 ...0.35
2012... 0.48 ...0.45
2013 ... 0.57...0.49
2014 ...0.57 ...?

Here is the Met Office prediction for 2014.

Now here is Vicky Pope from the Met Office:



Vicky Pope: “By 2014 we’re predicting it will be 0.3 degrees warmer than 2004, and just to put that into context the warming over the past century and a half has only been 0.7 degrees, globally, there have been bigger changes locally but globally the warming is 0.7 degrees. So 0.3 degrees over the next ten years is pretty significant. And half the years after 2009 are predicted to be hotter than 1998 which was the previous record. So these are very strong statements about what will happen over the next ten years, so again I think this illustrates we can already see signs of climate change but over the next ten years we are expecting to see quite significant changes occurring.”